Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)St. Patrick Football Complex, Ħaż-Żabbar
The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Zabbar St. Patrick. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk?
Marsaxlokk starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,571 vs 1,439).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zabbar St. Patrick have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Marsaxlokk have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birzebbuga(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 2-4 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Tarxien Rainbows(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Tarxien Rainbows(home) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Zabbar St. Patrick win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Marsaxlokk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick 1-2 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 1-0 Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 1-0 Zabbar St. Patrick | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 3-1 Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Marsaxlokk 2-2 Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Zabbar St. Patrick 1-3 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zabbar St. Patrick score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zabbar St. Patrick sit 7th in Premier League (3 points from 2 matches) and Marsaxlokk sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk?
- The Footlab model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Zabbar St. Patrick.
- Where and when is Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk played?
- Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at St. Patrick Football Complex, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.