HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for HNK Rijeka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Dinamo Zagreb starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (2,191 vs 2,015).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Rijeka have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Dinamo Zagreb have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudes(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 HNK Rijeka win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Dinamo Zagreb win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HNK Rijeka | Cup |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Feb 8, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Zagreb score 2.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Rijeka sit 5th in HNL (6 points from 3 matches) and Dinamo Zagreb sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for HNK Rijeka.
- Where and when is HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb played?
- HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion HNK Rijeka, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.