IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 30Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tingvalla IP, Karlstad
The Footlab model makes IF Karlstad the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Umeå FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC?
IF Karlstad starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,686 vs 1,534).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, IF Karlstad have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Umeå FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sollentuna(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Sandviken(home) | 0-2 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Assyriska FF(home) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Järfälla(away) | 4-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 2-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gefle IF(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 1-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Täfteå(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 IF Karlstad win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Umeå FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Umeå FC 0-2 IF Karlstad | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 19, 2025 | IF Karlstad 2-1 Umeå FC | Svenska Cupen |
| Oct 26, 2024 | IF Karlstad 3-4 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Umeå FC 5-2 IF Karlstad | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 16, 2023 | IF Karlstad 2-2 Umeå FC | Ettan - Norra |
| May 21, 2023 | Umeå FC 3-0 IF Karlstad | Ettan - Norra |
Last archived meeting: Umeå FC vs IF Karlstad on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
IF Karlstad score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Umeå FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Karlstad | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Umeå FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
IF Karlstad sit 3rd in Ettan - Norra (36 points from 18 matches) and Umeå FC sit 13th (17 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IF Karlstad | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 15 | 36 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC?
- The Footlab model makes IF Karlstad the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Umeå FC.
- Where and when is IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC played?
- IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC is played on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tingvalla IP, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.