Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen: prediction and stats
K League 1Regular Season - 30Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sungui Arena Park, Incheon
The Footlab model makes Daejeon Citizen the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Incheon United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Incheon United (1,752) and Daejeon Citizen (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Incheon United have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Daejeon Citizen have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 1-2 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gwangju FC(away) | 1-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC(home) | 1-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jeju United FC(away) | 3-3 | K League 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gimpo Citizen(away) | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Ulsan Hyundai FC(home) | 2-1 | K League 1 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gangwon FC(home) | 3-0 | K League 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Asan Mugunghwa(away) | 3-2 | FA Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Seoul(away) | 2-4 | K League 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Anyang(away) | 2-1 | K League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Incheon United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Daejeon Citizen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Daejeon Citizen 0-0 Incheon United | K League 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Incheon United 1-3 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Incheon United 1-2 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Incheon United | K League 1 |
| May 18, 2024 | Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Incheon United | K League 1 |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Incheon United 2-0 Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United on May 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Incheon United score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Daejeon Citizen score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Daejeon Citizen | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Incheon United sit 8th in K League 1 (33 points from 24 matches) and Daejeon Citizen sit 9th (32 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Incheon United | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 33 |
| 9 | Daejeon Citizen | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 29 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
- The Footlab model makes Daejeon Citizen the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Incheon United.
- Where and when is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen played?
- Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen is played on September 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sungui Arena Park, in the K League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.