Independiente del Valle vs Gualaceo SC: prediction and stats
Copa EcuadorQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Gualaceo SC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Gualaceo SC?
Independiente del Valle is a heavy favourite: 2,009 Elo points against 1,592 — a 417-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente del Valle have 15 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Gualaceo SC have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leones del Norte(away) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors(away) | 3-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico FC(home) | 0-0 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ind. Juniors(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Macara(home) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Independiente del Valle win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gualaceo SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Gualaceo SC 0-6 Independiente del Valle | Copa Ecuador |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Independiente del Valle 2-0 Gualaceo SC | Liga Pro |
| May 6, 2023 | Gualaceo SC 1-2 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Independiente del Valle 2-0 Gualaceo SC | Liga Pro |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Gualaceo SC 1-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Gualaceo SC vs Independiente del Valle on Oct 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente del Valle score 2.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gualaceo SC score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 2.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Gualaceo SC | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente del Valle vs Gualaceo SC?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Gualaceo SC.
- Where and when is Independiente del Valle vs Gualaceo SC played?
- Independiente del Valle vs Gualaceo SC is played on August 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, in the Copa Ecuador.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.