Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 27Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Universidad Catolica. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Independiente del Valle starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente del Valle have 15 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Universidad Catolica have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leones del Norte(away) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manta FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Macara(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 5-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Independiente del Valle win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Universidad Catolica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Universidad Catolica 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Supercopa de Ecuador |
| May 1, 2026 | Universidad Catolica 2-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Universidad Catolica 0-1 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 0-2 Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 1-2 Universidad Catolica | Copa Ecuador |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Universidad Catolica 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente del Valle score 2.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Universidad Catolica score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 2.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Universidad Catolica | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente del Valle sit 1st in Liga Pro (67 points from 26 matches) and Universidad Catolica sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 23 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Universidad Catolica.
- Where and when is Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica played?
- Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica is played on August 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.