Indy Eleven vs Miami FC: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Michael A. Carroll Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Footlab model makes Indy Eleven the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Miami FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Miami FC?
Indy Eleven starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,633).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Indy Eleven have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Miami FC have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting JAX(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Charleston Battery(away) | 0-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-2 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Detroit City(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Indy Eleven win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Miami FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Miami FC 2-0 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Indy Eleven 3-2 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Indy Eleven 1-0 Miami FC | US Open Cup |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Miami FC 1-3 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Indy Eleven 4-0 Miami FC | USL Championship |
| May 12, 2024 | Miami FC 1-3 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Miami FC vs Indy Eleven on Jul 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Indy Eleven score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Miami FC score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Miami FC | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Indy Eleven sit 6th in USL Championship (18 points from 11 matches) and Miami FC sit 8th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 28 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 17 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 39 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Indy Eleven vs Miami FC?
- The Footlab model makes Indy Eleven the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Miami FC.
- Where and when is Indy Eleven vs Miami FC played?
- Indy Eleven vs Miami FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots