Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 30, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Centreville Bank Stadium, Pawtucket, Rhode Island
The Footlab model makes Rhode Island the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Indy Eleven. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Rhode Island (1,810) and Indy Eleven (1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rhode Island have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Indy Eleven have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Birmingham Legion(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting JAX(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 1-3 | USL Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Loudoun United(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rhode Island win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Indy Eleven win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Rhode Island 1-0 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Indy Eleven 2-3 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Indy Eleven 1-0 Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Rhode Island 3-3 Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Indy Eleven vs Rhode Island on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rhode Island score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Indy Eleven score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Indy Eleven | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rhode Island sit 9th in USL Championship (15 points from 11 matches) and Indy Eleven sit 6th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 28 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 22 | 28 |
| 9 | Rhode Island | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven?
- The Footlab model makes Rhode Island the favourite at 57%, against 27% for a draw and 16% for Indy Eleven.
- Where and when is Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven played?
- Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven is played on September 30, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Centreville Bank Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots