Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Tver: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 26Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nova Arena, Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)
The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Tver. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Tver?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Zvezda St. Petersburg (1,586) and Tver (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zvezda St. Petersburg have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Tver have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cherepovets(home) | 5-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Zvezda St. Petersburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Tver win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tver 1-2 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Tver 1-1 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2025 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-3 Tver | Second League - Group 2 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Tver 1-0 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-4 Tver | Second League - Group 2 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 0-1 Tver | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Tver vs Zvezda St. Petersburg on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zvezda St. Petersburg score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tver score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvezda St. Petersburg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Tver | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zvezda St. Petersburg sit 9th in Second League - Group 2 (12 points from 11 matches) and Tver sit 11th (10 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 10 | Tver | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 34 | 22 |
| 11 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 11 | Tver | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Tver?
- The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Tver.
- Where and when is Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Tver played?
- Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Tver is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nova Arena, in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.