Where and when is Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit played?

Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, in the Liga Alef.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit: prediction and stats

Liga AlefNorth - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, Baqa al-Gharbiyye

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Hapoel Nazareth Illit. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit?

A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,702) and Hapoel Nazareth Illit (1,660).

Ironi Baka El Garbiya win42 %

Draw26 %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Hapoel Nazareth Illit have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Feb 27, 2026	Ironi Nesher(away)	0-0	Liga Alef
Feb 20, 2026	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home)	0-3	Liga Alef
Feb 13, 2026	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away)	0-1	Liga Alef
Feb 6, 2026	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home)	4-1	Liga Alef
Jan 30, 2026	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away)	1-2	Liga Alef

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 25, 2026	Hapoel Acre(home)	2-2	Liga Leumit
May 19, 2026	Ironi Modi'in(home)	0-2	Liga Leumit
May 15, 2026	Hapoel Afula(away)	1-2	Liga Leumit
May 11, 2026	Kafr Qasim(away)	1-1	Liga Leumit
May 4, 2026	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa(away)	0-2	Liga Leumit

How many goals should we expect?

Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Nazareth Illit score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ironi Baka El Garbiya	1.4	1.5	2	9/15	9/15
Hapoel Nazareth Illit	1.3	1.7	3	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	22	9	4	9	33	30	31

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit?: The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Hapoel Nazareth Illit.
Where and when is Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit played?: Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.