Istaravshan vs Barki Tajik: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rodnik, Nay
The Footlab model makes Barki Tajik the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Istaravshan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istaravshan vs Barki Tajik?
Barki Tajik starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,348 vs 1,233).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istaravshan have 0 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats; Barki Tajik have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 0-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor(away) | 2-5 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Parvoz(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istiqlol(home) | 1-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ravshan(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Khatlon(home) | 2-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Parvoz(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Khujand(home) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Istaravshan win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Barki Tajik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Barki Tajik 2-1 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Barki Tajik 0-0 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2025 | Istaravshan 2-0 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Barki Tajik 1-0 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Istaravshan 1-1 Barki Tajik | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 22, 2015 | Barki Tajik 3-1 Istaravshan | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barki Tajik vs Istaravshan on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istaravshan score 0.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Barki Tajik score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istaravshan | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Barki Tajik | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istaravshan sit 12th in Vysshaya Liga (5 points from 13 matches) and Barki Tajik sit 6th (18 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barki Tajik | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 13 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istaravshan vs Barki Tajik?
- The Footlab model makes Barki Tajik the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Istaravshan.
- Where and when is Istaravshan vs Barki Tajik played?
- Istaravshan vs Barki Tajik is played on September 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rodnik, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.