Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Republican Central Stadium, Dushanbe
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Khosilot Farkhor. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor?
Istiqlol starts as the favourite with a 293-point Elo edge (1,727 vs 1,434).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istiqlol have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Khosilot Farkhor have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 3-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Istaravshan(home) | 5-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 3-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 6-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Istiqlol win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Khosilot Farkhor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Khosilot Farkhor 1-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Khosilot Farkhor 0-9 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Istiqlol 1-1 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Khosilot Farkhor 3-3 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 4, 2024 | Istiqlol 3-1 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 19, 2023 | Istiqlol 5-0 Khosilot Farkhor | Vysshaya Liga |
Last archived meeting: Khosilot Farkhor vs Istiqlol on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Khosilot Farkhor score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Khosilot Farkhor | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istiqlol sit 3rd in Vysshaya Liga (28 points from 13 matches) and Khosilot Farkhor sit 2nd (28 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Khosilot Farkhor | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Khosilot Farkhor.
- Where and when is Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor played?
- Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Republican Central Stadium, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.