Khujand vs Istiqlol: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti, Khujand
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Khujand. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Khujand vs Istiqlol?
Istiqlol starts as the favourite with a 285-point Elo edge (1,727 vs 1,442).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Khujand have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Istiqlol have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(home) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Barki Tajik(away) | 0-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Khatlon(home) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Khujand win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Istiqlol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Istiqlol 2-1 Khujand | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Khujand 1-0 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Istiqlol 1-0 Khujand | Vysshaya Liga |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Istiqlol 0-1 Khujand | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Khujand 0-1 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Aug 17, 2023 | Khujand 0-2 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Khujand score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khujand | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Khujand sit 5th in Vysshaya Liga (20 points from 14 matches) and Istiqlol sit 3rd (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Khujand | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Khujand vs Istiqlol?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Khujand.
- Where and when is Khujand vs Istiqlol played?
- Khujand vs Istiqlol is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.