Where and when is Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm played?

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion JKS-u, in the III Liga - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 17Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion JKS-u, Jarosław

Jarosław

Chełmianka Chełm

The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Jarosław. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?

Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,749).

Jarosław win28 %

Draw24 %

Chełmianka Chełm win47 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 13 matches in all competitions, Jarosław have 7 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Chełmianka Chełm have 12, 2 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Jarosław
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Podlasie Biała Podlaska(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Siarka Tarnobrzeg(away)	3-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	KS Wieczysta Krakow II(home)	1-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(away)	1-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 1, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(home)	2-2	III Liga - Group 4

Chełmianka Chełm
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Naprzód(away)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Wisłoka Dębica(home)	2-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Moravia Morawica(away)	3-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(home)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 1, 2026	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away)	1-0	III Liga - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Jarosław score 2.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 13; Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Jarosław	2.2	1.7	1	11/13	11/13
Chełmianka Chełm	2.1	0.9	8	7/15	8/15

Over the last 13 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Jarosław sit 6th in III Liga - Group 4 (7 points from 5 matches) and Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
6	Jarosław	5	2	1	2	9	8	7

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm?: The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Jarosław.
Where and when is Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm played?: Jarosław vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion JKS-u, in the III Liga - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.