JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Black Rhino Academy Stadium, Karatu
The Footlab model makes JKT Tanzania the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar?
JKT Tanzania starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,552 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, JKT Tanzania have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 0-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 JKT Tanzania win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025 | JKT Tanzania 2-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-1 JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 29, 2023 | JKT Tanzania 1-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 1, 2021 | JKT Tanzania 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 7, 2020 | Kagera Sugar 0-1 JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar on Feb 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
JKT Tanzania score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JKT Tanzania | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
JKT Tanzania sit 16th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | JKT Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes JKT Tanzania the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar played?
- JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Black Rhino Academy Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.