Simba vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 94%, against 5% for a draw and 1% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 3-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Simba vs Mbeya City?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,995 Elo points against 1,526, a 468-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Simba vs Mbeya City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Simba
4-3-3- 7L. Gueye
- 34E. Mpanzu
- 29Ibrahim Doumbia
- 35N. Maema
- 17C. Chama
- 18M. Abraham
- 23R. De Reuck
- 26N. Chilambo
- 20A. Oura
- 39Abdoul Rafiu Kassali
- 28H. Abel
Mbeya City
4-3-3- 10E. Ambokile
- 22V. Mayanga
- 32M. Simon
- 17W. Mwani
- 21J. Mwanuke
- 20H. Haji
- 26A. Buha
- 14Nassor Mbarouk
- 5Y. Seleman Mbegu
- 4K. Pillar
- 31T. Reuben
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Simba have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 6-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Young Africans(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Azam(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(home) | 6-1 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Be Forward Wanderers(away) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Simba wins, 1 draw, 1 Mbeya City win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Simba 3-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 18, 2023 | Simba 3-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 23, 2022 | Mbeya City 1-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 16, 2022 | Simba 3-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 17, 2022 | Mbeya City 1-0 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
How many goals should we expect?
Simba score 2.1 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 2.1 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Simba sit 1st in Ligi kuu Bara (21 points from 7 matches) and Mbeya City sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Simba vs Mbeya City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Simba vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Simba the favourite at 94%, against 5% for a draw and 1% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Simba vs Mbeya City played?
- Simba vs Mbeya City is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at KMC Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.