Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab AI model makes Tabora United the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tabora United wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,869 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United?
Tabora United starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,617 vs 1,508).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Tabora United
4-3-3- 30J. Akandwanaho
- 26Ayoub Lyanga
- 45E. Mwanengo
- 6S. Hoza
- 55Tobias Otieno
- 19M. Yassin
- 5N. Kombo
- 4Shariff Majabe
- 22J. Lazarus
- 60E. Manyama
- 18D. Mgore
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 05:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Tabora United have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Mbeya City(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Kagera Sugar win, 1 draw, 2 Tabora United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Tabora United | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Tabora United 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Tabora United 0-3 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Tabora United | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United on Feb 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tabora United score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Tabora United | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 14th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 8 matches) and Tabora United sit 13th (6 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 6 |
A question about Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tabora United the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United is played on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.