Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab model makes Tabora United the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United?
Tabora United starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,577 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Tabora United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Azam(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Kagera Sugar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tabora United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Tabora United | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Tabora United 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Tabora United 0-3 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 30, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Tabora United | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United on Feb 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tabora United score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Tabora United | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 15th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Tabora United sit 11th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tabora United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United?
- The Footlab model makes Tabora United the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Tabora United is played on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.