Joinville vs Metropolitano: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Arena Joinville, Joinville, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Joinville the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Metropolitano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Joinville vs Metropolitano?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Joinville (1,628) and Metropolitano (1,669).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Joinville have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Metropolitano have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | São Luiz(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Guarany de Bagé(home) | 2-0 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | Cianorte(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Catarina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| May 10, 2026 | Cascavel(away) | 0-1 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 3-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Juventus SC(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jaraguá(home) | 6-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-4 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 3-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Joinville win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Metropolitano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2021 | Metropolitano 0-1 Joinville | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Metropolitano vs Joinville on Mar 13, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Joinville score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Metropolitano score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joinville | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Metropolitano | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Joinville vs Metropolitano?
- The Footlab model makes Joinville the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Metropolitano.
- Where and when is Joinville vs Metropolitano played?
- Joinville vs Metropolitano is played on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Joinville, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.