Match

Marcílio Dias vs Barra: prediction and stats

Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina

Marcílio DiasBarra

The Footlab AI model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Barra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marcílio Dias wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,615 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Barra?

A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Marcílio Dias (1,710) and Barra (1,627).

47%26%27%
Marcílio Dias winDrawBarra win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Marcílio Dias vs Barra

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Marcílio Dias

4-3-3
  1. 10Cesinha
  2. 9Lucas Batatinha
  3. 17Jose Carlos
  1. 8Felipe Baiano
  2. 15Guilherme Kante
  3. 7Roldan
  1. 2Victor Guilherme
  2. 4Luan
  3. 5Reginaldo
  4. 6Jonathan
  1. 1Matheus Cavichioli

Barra

4-3-3
  1. 10Marquinho
  2. 9Saymon
  3. 7Cléo Silva
  1. 8Peçanha
  2. 4Vava
  3. 5Natan
  1. 2Augusto Potiguar
  2. 13Pierre Jean
  3. 6Adriel
  4. 4Éverton Alemão
  1. 1Fabián Volpi

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 10:38 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marcílio Dias have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Barra have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marcílio Dias
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Figueirense(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Oct 9, 2026Nação(away)0-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 26, 2026Blumenau(away)1-1Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 19, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)4-2Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 13, 2026Santa Catarina(away)1-2Copa Santa Catarina
Barra
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Metropolitano(home)3-3Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 26, 2026Joinville(away)1-2Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 23, 2026Nação(home)3-3Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 15, 2026Blumenau(home)2-2Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 5, 2026Figueirense(away)1-1Copa Santa Catarina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Marcílio Dias wins, 0 draws, 2 Barra wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 22, 2026Marcílio Dias 0-1 BarraCatarinense - 1
Oct 12, 2025Marcílio Dias 6-0 BarraCopa Santa Catarina
Sep 10, 2025Barra 0-6 Marcílio DiasCopa Santa Catarina
Jul 14, 2025Marcílio Dias 1-0 BarraSerie D
May 3, 2025Barra 2-1 Marcílio DiasSerie D
Feb 12, 2025Marcílio Dias 2-0 BarraCatarinense - 1

Last archived meeting: Marcílio Dias vs Barra on Jan 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Marcílio Dias score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barra score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Marcílio Dias1.91.1410/158/15
Barra1.31.5210/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Marcílio Dias vs Barra?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marcílio Dias vs Barra?
The Footlab AI model makes Marcílio Dias the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Barra.
Where and when is Marcílio Dias vs Barra played?
Marcílio Dias vs Barra is played on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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