Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,448) and Polisi Tanzania (1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Polisi Tanzania have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kagera Sugar win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2023 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 2-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 29, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 15, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 22, 2020 | Kagera Sugar 2-2 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar on Feb 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Polisi Tanzania score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Polisi Tanzania | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 15th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Polisi Tanzania sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.