Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shiranami Stadium, Kagoshima
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Sagamihara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Kagoshima United (1,814) and Sagamihara (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagoshima United have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Sagamihara have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(away) | 4-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-0 | J2/J3 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 4-3 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Kagoshima United win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Sagamihara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Kagoshima United 3-0 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Sagamihara 0-2 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Sagamihara 0-3 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Kagoshima United 2-1 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Sagamihara 0-1 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Jul 17, 2022 | Kagoshima United 0-1 Sagamihara | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sagamihara | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagoshima United sit 4th in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Sagamihara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Sagamihara.
- Where and when is Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara played?
- Kagoshima United vs Sagamihara is played on May 9, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shiranami Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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