Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion OSRiR, Kalisz
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznań II the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Kalisz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Kalisz (1,716) and Lech Poznań II (1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kalisz have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lech Poznań II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Noteć Czarnków(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kotwica Kórnik(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Unia Swarzędz(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Górnik Łęczna(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gedania Gdansk(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Victoria Września(away) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kalisz win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Lech Poznań II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kalisz 2-2 Lech Poznań II | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Lech Poznań II 3-2 Kalisz | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 4, 2024 | Lech Poznań II 1-1 Kalisz | II Liga - East |
| Oct 20, 2023 | Kalisz 2-1 Lech Poznań II | II Liga - East |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Lech Poznań II 0-4 Kalisz | II Liga - East |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Kalisz 2-2 Lech Poznań II | II Liga - East |
Last archived meeting: Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kalisz score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznań II score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalisz | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lech Poznań II | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kalisz sit 8th in III Liga - Group 2 (8 points from 5 matches) and Lech Poznań II sit 6th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Kalisz | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznań II the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Kalisz.
- Where and when is Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II played?
- Kalisz vs Lech Poznań II is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSRiR, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Chemik BydgoszczvsGedania Gdansk
- Oct 10, 2026Polonia ŚrodavsKluczevia Stargard
- Oct 10, 2026Stargard SzczecińskivsLipno Stęszew
- Oct 10, 2026Bałtyk KoszalinvsUnia Swarzędz
- Oct 10, 2026Flota ŚwinoujścievsElana Toruń
- Oct 10, 2026LuzinovsWda Świecie
- Oct 10, 2026Victoria WrześniavsGrom Nowy Staw
- Oct 10, 2026Kotwica KórnikvsNoteć Czarnków