Karpaty vs Oleksandria: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Oleksandria the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Karpaty. The most likely score is 1-1. If Oleksandria wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,075 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Oleksandria?
On Elo ratings, Karpaty has 1,995 points and Oleksandria 1,810.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Karpaty vs Oleksandria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Karpaty
4-1-4-1- 9J. Séry
- 8A. Chachua
- 10Moha
- 17R. Vantukh
- 70Xeber Alkain
- 7Fellipe Vieira
- 47Jean Pedroso
- 4V. Baboglo
- 73R. Lyakh
- 14Iván Calero
- 80R. Mysak
Oleksandria
4-3-3- 9M. Tretyakov
- 44Jhonnatan Silva
- 25O. Kozak
- 21R. Tolochko
- 14R. Kuzmin
- 30Y. Kopyna
- 5O. Dykhtyaruk
- 2T. Dmytruk
- 3V. Adamyuk
- 4N. Gavrylyuk
- 33A. Klishchuk
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 01:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Oleksandria have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Kulykiv(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(home) | 1-3 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(away) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol'(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Karpaty wins, 0 draws, 3 Oleksandria wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Karpaty 2-0 Oleksandria | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Oleksandria 0-2 Karpaty | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Karpaty 2-1 Oleksandria | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Oleksandria 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Mar 4, 2020 | Karpaty 0-4 Oleksandria | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Oleksandria 2-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Oleksandria on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Oleksandria score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Oleksandria | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Karpaty vs Oleksandria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Oleksandria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Oleksandria the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Karpaty.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Oleksandria played?
- Karpaty vs Oleksandria is played on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.