Kocaelispor vs Kasımpaşa: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli
The Footlab model makes Kocaelispor the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Kasımpaşa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kocaelispor vs Kasımpaşa?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Kocaelispor (1,873) and Kasımpaşa (1,921).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kocaelispor have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Kasımpaşa have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Amed(home) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Başakşehir(away) | 0-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 17, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(home) | 0-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Kocaelispor win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kasımpaşa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 1-1 Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 2-0 Kocaelispor | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Kocaelispor 0-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Kasımpaşa 5-3 Kocaelispor | Türkiye Kupası |
| Nov 1, 2012 | Kasımpaşa 5-0 Kocaelispor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kocaelispor score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kocaelispor sit 11th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Kasımpaşa sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kocaelispor vs Kasımpaşa?
- The Footlab model makes Kocaelispor the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Kasımpaşa.
- Where and when is Kocaelispor vs Kasımpaşa played?
- Kocaelispor vs Kasımpaşa is played on January 17, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.