Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Jas kanat, Aktau
The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Kaspiy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty?
Kairat Almaty starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaspiy have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Kairat Almaty have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kaspiy win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Kairat Almaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Kairat Almaty 2-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 3-0 Kaspiy | Cup |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Kaspiy 1-1 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Kairat Almaty 3-1 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Aug 27, 2022 | Kaspiy 2-2 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Apr 9, 2022 | Kairat Almaty 1-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kairat Almaty vs Kaspiy on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kaspiy score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kairat Almaty score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaspiy | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Kairat Almaty | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaspiy sit 11th in Premier League (23 points from 22 matches) and Kairat Almaty sit 2nd (48 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 11 | Kaspiy | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty?
- The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Kaspiy.
- Where and when is Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty played?
- Kaspiy vs Kairat Almaty is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Jas kanat, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.