Kaspiy vs Aktobe: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Jas kanat, Aktau
The Footlab model makes Kaspiy the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Aktobe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaspiy vs Aktobe?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Kaspiy (1,537) and Aktobe (1,611).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaspiy have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Aktobe have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kaspiy win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Aktobe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Aktobe 1-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Kaspiy 2-2 Aktobe | Premier League |
| May 21, 2023 | Aktobe 0-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Aktobe 4-0 Kaspiy | Premier League |
| May 8, 2022 | Kaspiy 2-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Aktobe 1-5 Kaspiy | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kaspiy score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aktobe score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaspiy | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Aktobe | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaspiy sit 11th in Premier League (23 points from 22 matches) and Aktobe sit 5th (35 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 11 | Kaspiy | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaspiy vs Aktobe?
- The Footlab model makes Kaspiy the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Aktobe.
- Where and when is Kaspiy vs Aktobe played?
- Kaspiy vs Aktobe is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Jas kanat, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.