Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon, Almaty
The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for FK Tobol Kostanay. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Kairat Almaty starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,608).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kairat Almaty have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; FK Tobol Kostanay have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Partizan(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Panevėžys(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kairat Almaty win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 FK Tobol Kostanay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Kairat Almaty 2-2 FK Tobol Kostanay | Super Cup |
| Jul 26, 2025 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-3 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Kairat Almaty 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Kairat Almaty 2-2 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Jun 15, 2024 | FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 Kairat Almaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kairat Almaty on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kairat Almaty score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; FK Tobol Kostanay score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 1.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kairat Almaty sit 2nd in Premier League (48 points from 21 matches) and FK Tobol Kostanay sit 9th (25 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 9 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
- The Footlab model makes Kairat Almaty the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for FK Tobol Kostanay.
- Where and when is Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay played?
- Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.