Kassel vs Fernwald: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HessenHessen - 13Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Spielplatz Jahnstraße KS-Unterneustadt, Kassel
The Footlab model makes Fernwald the favourite at 49%, against 20% for a draw and 31% for Kassel. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kassel vs Fernwald?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Kassel (1,745) and Fernwald (1,814).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kassel have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fernwald have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | TuBa Pohlheim(away) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Friedberg(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Baunatal(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Unter-Flockenbach(away) | 0-6 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Darmstadt 98 II(home) | 1-5 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kassel 2(away) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hünfelder SV(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | TuBa Pohlheim(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayern Alzenau(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf(home) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Kassel win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fernwald win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Fernwald 3-3 Kassel | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Kassel 0-2 Fernwald | Oberliga - Hessen |
How many goals should we expect?
Kassel score 2.5 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Fernwald score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kassel | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Fernwald | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kassel sit 13th in Oberliga - Hessen (4 points from 5 matches) and Fernwald sit 9th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fernwald | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Kassel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kassel vs Fernwald?
- The Footlab model makes Fernwald the favourite at 49%, against 20% for a draw and 31% for Kassel.
- Where and when is Kassel vs Fernwald played?
- Kassel vs Fernwald is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Spielplatz Jahnstraße KS-Unterneustadt, in the Oberliga - Hessen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Baunatalvs1960 Hanau
- Oct 10, 2026FC GießenvsHummetroth
- Oct 10, 2026FriedbergvsBayern Alzenau
- Oct 10, 2026Darmstadt 98 IIvsKassel 2
- Oct 10, 2026Unter-FlockenbachvsHünfelder SV
- Oct 10, 2026HadamarvsVfb Marburg
- Oct 11, 2026TuBa PohlheimvsEintracht Stadtallendorf
- Oct 11, 2026Rot-Weiß WalldorfvsEddersheim