Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Barnaul: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 4Group 4 - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Khimik, Dzerzhinsk
The Footlab model makes Khimik Dzerzhinsk the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Dinamo Barnaul. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Barnaul?
Khimik Dzerzhinsk starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,844 vs 1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Khimik Dzerzhinsk have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Dinamo Barnaul have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KDV(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Orenburg II(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Nosta(home) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin Kazan 2(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nosta(home) | 5-0 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Akron II(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod(away) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Dinamo Vladivostok(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ural II(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 4 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Chelyabinsk II(away) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Khimik Dzerzhinsk win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Dinamo Barnaul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dinamo Barnaul 0-4 Khimik Dzerzhinsk | Second League - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk 4-1 Dinamo Barnaul | Second League - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk 4-1 Dinamo Barnaul | Second League - Group 4 |
| Jun 8, 2025 | Dinamo Barnaul 0-4 Khimik Dzerzhinsk | Second League - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Barnaul vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Khimik Dzerzhinsk score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Barnaul score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 2.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Dinamo Barnaul | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Khimik Dzerzhinsk sit 1st in Second League - Group 4 (56 points from 22 matches) and Dinamo Barnaul sit 6th (26 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 16 | 56 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 50 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Barnaul?
- The Footlab model makes Khimik Dzerzhinsk the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Dinamo Barnaul.
- Where and when is Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Barnaul played?
- Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Dinamo Barnaul is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Khimik, in the Second League - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.