Kilmarnock vs Falkirk: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
The Footlab AI model makes Kilmarnock the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Falkirk. The most likely score is 1-1. If Kilmarnock wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Falkirk?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Kilmarnock (1,809) and Falkirk (1,831).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kilmarnock vs Falkirk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kilmarnock
4-2-3-1- 9J. Hugill
- 18T. Lowery
- 11G. Kiltie
- 8E. Ring
- 10T. John-Jules
- 36A. Tshibola
- 21M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 4C. McCarthy
- 14G. Stanger
- 3Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
- 12C. Ferrie
Falkirk
4-2-3-1- 24J. Murrell
- 23E. Ross
- 16Finley Frank Barbrook
- 8B. Spencer
- 28B. Krauhaus
- 42Owen Eames
- 5L. Henderson
- 22R. Strain
- 3L. McCann
- 15L. Neilson
- 19S. Bain
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kilmarnock have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Falkirk have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kilmarnock wins, 0 draws, 4 Falkirk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Kilmarnock 0-1 Falkirk | Premiership |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Jun 24, 2022 | Falkirk 1-4 Kilmarnock | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 4, 2021 | Kilmarnock 3-1 Falkirk | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 6, 2020 | Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kilmarnock score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Falkirk score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 1.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Falkirk | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kilmarnock sit 12th in Premiership (5 points from 8 matches) and Falkirk sit 11th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 5 |
A question about Kilmarnock vs Falkirk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs Falkirk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Kilmarnock the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Falkirk.
- Where and when is Kilmarnock vs Falkirk played?
- Kilmarnock vs Falkirk is played on December 30, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.