Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motherwell wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,831 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Kilmarnock (1,771) and Motherwell (1,827).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kilmarnock
4-2-3-1- 9J. Hugill
- 18T. Lowery
- 11G. Kiltie
- 10T. John-Jules
- 36A. Tshibola
- 8E. Ring
- 21M. Schjønning-Larsen
- 4C. McCarthy
- 14G. Stanger
- 2J. Brandon
- 12C. Ferrie
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 19I. Said
- 63D. Levitt
- 6J. McGhee
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 3J. Girdwood-Reich
- 1A. Paulsen
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 02:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kilmarnock have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Motherwell have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 3-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 2-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kilmarnock wins, 1 draw, 3 Motherwell wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock 3-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Motherwell 4-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Kilmarnock 1-3 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Motherwell 2-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| May 14, 2025 | Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kilmarnock 2-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kilmarnock score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 1.1 | 1.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kilmarnock sit 12th in Premiership (8 points from 11 matches) and Motherwell sit 10th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Motherwell | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 8 |
A question about Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is Kilmarnock vs Motherwell played?
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.