Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Kilmarnock (1,885) and Motherwell (1,974).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kilmarnock have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Motherwell have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 1-5 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 3-4 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Peterhead(away) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kilmarnock win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Motherwell win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Motherwell 4-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Kilmarnock 1-3 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Motherwell 2-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| May 14, 2025 | Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kilmarnock 2-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 8, 2025 | Kilmarnock 0-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Motherwell vs Kilmarnock on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kilmarnock score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kilmarnock sit 12th in Premiership (0 points from 2 matches) and Motherwell sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is Kilmarnock vs Motherwell played?
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.