Krka vs Ilirija: prediction and stats
2. SNLRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Portoval, Novo mesto
The Footlab model makes Ilirija the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Krka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Krka vs Ilirija?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Krka (1,446) and Ilirija (1,498).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Krka have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Ilirija have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Slovan Ljubljana(home) | 2-3 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudar(away) | 0-3 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bistrica(home) | 0-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Segesta Sisak(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rudar(home) | 2-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bistrica(away) | 6-0 | 2. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dravinja(home) | 1-0 | 2. SNL |
| May 22, 2026 | Beltinci(home) | 1-3 | 2. SNL |
| May 15, 2026 | Gorica(away) | 0-1 | 2. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Krka win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Ilirija win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Krka 1-4 Ilirija | 2. SNL |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Ilirija 1-1 Krka | 2. SNL |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Ilirija 1-1 Krka | 2. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Krka 1-0 Ilirija | 2. SNL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Krka 1-1 Ilirija | 2. SNL |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Ilirija 3-2 Krka | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Krka score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ilirija score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krka | 1.4 | 1.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Ilirija | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Krka sit 14th in 2. SNL (1 points from 3 matches) and Ilirija sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ilirija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Krka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Krka vs Ilirija?
- The Footlab model makes Ilirija the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Krka.
- Where and when is Krka vs Ilirija played?
- Krka vs Ilirija is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Portoval, in the 2. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.