Match

KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats

Jupiler Pro LeagueMatchday 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Malines

KV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise

The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for KV Mechelen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Union St. Gilloise wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 6,082 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise?

Union St. Gilloise is a heavy favourite: 2,431 Elo points against 2,086, a 345-point gap.

19%23%58%
KV Mechelen winDrawUnion St. Gilloise win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

KV Mechelen

3-4-1-2
  1. 9M. van Brederode
  2. 14B. Raman
  1. 6F. Hammar
  2. 7T. Koudou
  3. 30Marco Decherf
  4. 23S. Michez
  5. 26D. Praet
  1. 3José Marsà
  2. 20K. Corbanie
  3. 44M. Eerdhuijzen
  1. 1O. De Wolf

Union St. Gilloise

3-4-2-1
  1. 23B. Zeneli
  1. 6K. Van de Perre
  2. 27L. Patris
  3. 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
  4. 8A. Zorgane
  5. 38R. Mofokeng
  6. 20D. Aquino
  1. 29M. Sylla
  2. 55N. Havenaar
  3. 4N. Chibani
  1. 12H. Koffi

Computed on November 15, 2026 at 04:35 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KV Mechelen have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 12, 3 and 0.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

KV Mechelen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026OH Leuven(away)0-2Jupiler Pro League
Nov 4, 2026Kortrijk(away)3-1Jupiler Pro League
Oct 31, 2026Genk(home)1-0Jupiler Pro League
Oct 18, 2026AS Eupen(home)5-1Cup
Oct 11, 2026St. Truiden(home)4-3Jupiler Pro League
Union St. Gilloise
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Genk(home)1-0Jupiler Pro League
Nov 5, 2026Celta Vigo(away)2-1UEFA Europa League
Oct 31, 2026SK Beveren(away)2-1Jupiler Pro League
Oct 25, 2026Cercle Brugge(home)5-2Jupiler Pro League
Oct 22, 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva(home)4-0UEFA Europa League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 KV Mechelen win, 2 draws, 3 Union St. Gilloise wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Union St. Gilloise 3-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Apr 12, 2026KV Mechelen 0-1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
Jan 17, 2026Union St. Gilloise 1-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Nov 9, 2025KV Mechelen 1-1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
Feb 16, 2025Union St. Gilloise 0-1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
Nov 2, 2024KV Mechelen 1-1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Last archived meeting: Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

KV Mechelen score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
KV Mechelen1.31.736/157/15
Union St. Gilloise2.50.596/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

KV Mechelen sit 11th in Jupiler Pro League (12 points from 11 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 1st (29 points from 11 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Union St. Gilloise1192030729
11KV Mechelen11335132012

A question about KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise?
The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for KV Mechelen.
Where and when is KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise played?
KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Jupiler Pro League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: KV Mechelen and Union St. Gilloise