KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Malines
The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for KV Mechelen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise is a heavy favourite: 2,191 Elo points against 1,887 — a 304-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KV Mechelen have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Standard Liege(home) | 3-3 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 5-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 1-1 | Super Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 KV Mechelen win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Union St. Gilloise win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise 3-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | KV Mechelen 0-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise 1-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 0-1 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | KV Mechelen 1-1 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Union St. Gilloise vs KV Mechelen on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
KV Mechelen score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KV Mechelen sit 14th in Jupiler Pro League (1 points from 3 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for KV Mechelen.
- Where and when is KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- KV Mechelen vs Union St. Gilloise is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.