Recanatese vs L'Aquila: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
The Footlab AI model makes L'Aquila the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Recanatese. The most likely score is 1-1. If L'Aquila wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Recanatese vs L'Aquila?
L'Aquila starts as the favourite with a 186-point Elo edge (1,800 vs 1,614).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Recanatese vs L'Aquila
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Recanatese
Not enough data to predict the Recanatese lineup.
L'Aquila
Not enough data to predict the L'Aquila lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Recanatese have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; L'Aquila have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Notaresco(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Maceratese(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lanciano FC(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Montecchio Gallo(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Santegidiese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 5-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pietralunga(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Recanatese wins, 0 draws, 4 L'Aquila wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Recanatese 0-2 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 24, 2025 | L'Aquila 2-1 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Recanatese 0-2 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 22, 2024 | L'Aquila 2-1 Recanatese | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Recanatese vs L'Aquila on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Recanatese score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; L'Aquila score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recanatese | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| L'Aquila | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Recanatese sit 15th in Serie D - Girone F (6 points from 7 matches) and L'Aquila sit 1st (17 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Recanatese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Recanatese vs L'Aquila?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Recanatese vs L'Aquila?
- The Footlab AI model makes L'Aquila the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Recanatese.
- Where and when is Recanatese vs L'Aquila played?
- Recanatese vs L'Aquila is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Nicola Tubaldi, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 18, 2026AnconavsFossombrone
- Oct 18, 2026TeramovsTermoli Calcio
- Oct 18, 2026Foligno CalciovsReal Giulianova
- Oct 18, 2026NotarescovsMaceratese
- Oct 18, 2026Atletico AscolivsLanciano FC
- Oct 18, 2026Montecchio GallovsAngelana
- Oct 18, 2026PietralungavsSporting Trestina
- Oct 18, 2026SantegidiesevsVigor Senigallia