Lancaster City vs Leek Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Giant Axe Stadium, Lancaster, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Lancaster City (1,745) and Leek Town (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lancaster City have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Leek Town have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Quorn(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ashton United(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Lancaster City win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Leek Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lancaster City 2-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Leek Town 0-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Leek Town 2-1 Lancaster City | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Lancaster City 0-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Lancaster City vs Leek Town on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lancaster City score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster City | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lancaster City sit 18th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Leek Town sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 18 | Lancaster City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
- The Footlab model makes Lancaster City the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Lancaster City vs Leek Town played?
- Lancaster City vs Leek Town is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Giant Axe Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026BuryvsCleethorpes Town
- Oct 17, 2026Alfreton TownvsWarrington Town
- Oct 17, 2026Gainsborough TrinityvsHyde United
- Oct 17, 2026Ilkeston TownvsAvro
- Oct 17, 2026Ashton UnitedvsRedcar Athletic
- Oct 17, 2026Bamber BridgevsWorkington
- Oct 17, 2026United of ManchestervsQuorn
- Oct 17, 2026Whitby TownvsCurzon Ashton