Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 16Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)F. Ball Community Stadium, Leek, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Leek Town (1,772) and Gainsborough Trinity (1,791).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leek Town have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Leek Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Gainsborough Trinity win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Leek Town 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Leek Town 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town on Feb 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leek Town sit 15th in Non League Premier - Northern (5 points from 5 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at F. Ball Community Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.