Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 16Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)F. Ball Community Stadium, Leek, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gainsborough Trinity wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Leek Town (1,838) and Gainsborough Trinity (1,860).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leek Town
Not enough data to predict the Leek Town lineup.
Gainsborough Trinity
Not enough data to predict the Gainsborough Trinity lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leek Town have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lancaster City(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ashton United(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 3-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 2-0 | FA Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hyde United(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Ilkeston Town(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 6-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Anstey Nomads(home) | 2-3 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Leek Town win, 0 draws, 3 Gainsborough Trinity wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Leek Town 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Leek Town 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town on Feb 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leek Town score 2.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 2.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leek Town | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leek Town sit 15th in Non League Premier - Northern (14 points from 13 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 4th (25 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 16 | 25 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 14 |
A question about Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Leek Town vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at F. Ball Community Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.