Langreo vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal, La Felguera, Langreo
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Langreo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Langreo vs Covadonga?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Langreo (1,857) and Covadonga (1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Langreo have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Llanes(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Oviedo II(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Numancia(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Langreo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Covadonga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | Langreo 0-5 Covadonga | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Covadonga 1-1 Langreo | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 28, 2021 | Covadonga 0-3 Langreo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 14, 2021 | Covadonga 0-1 Langreo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Langreo 3-2 Covadonga | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Langreo score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langreo | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Langreo vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Langreo.
- Where and when is Langreo vs Covadonga played?
- Langreo vs Covadonga is played on September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.