Larne vs Linfield: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Inver Park, Larne
The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Linfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Larne vs Linfield?
Larne starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,747 vs 1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Larne have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Linfield have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cliftonville FC(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Glentoran(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Dollingstown(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Limavady United(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Larne win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Linfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Linfield 0-2 Larne | Premiership |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Larne 1-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Linfield 0-0 Larne | Premiership |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Larne 0-0 Linfield | Premiership |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Larne 2-1 Linfield | Premiership |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Linfield 1-0 Larne | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Larne score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Linfield score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Linfield | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Larne sit 9th in Premiership (1 points from 1 matches) and Linfield sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Linfield | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Larne vs Linfield?
- The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Linfield.
- Where and when is Larne vs Linfield played?
- Larne vs Linfield is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Inver Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.