Larne vs Portadown: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Inver Park, Larne
The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Portadown. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Larne vs Portadown?
Larne starts as the favourite with a 297-point Elo edge (1,747 vs 1,450).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Larne have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Portadown have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coleraine FC(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Saburtalo(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FK Crvena Zvezda(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crusaders FC(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kilbarrack United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Larne win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Portadown win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Portadown 2-1 Larne | Premiership |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Larne 3-0 Portadown | Premiership |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Larne 4-0 Portadown | Premiership |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Portadown 2-0 Larne | Premiership |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Larne 1-1 Portadown | Premiership |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Portadown 2-1 Larne | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Larne score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Portadown score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Portadown | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Larne sit 9th in Premiership (1 points from 1 matches) and Portadown sit 10th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Portadown | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Larne vs Portadown?
- The Footlab model makes Larne the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Portadown.
- Where and when is Larne vs Portadown played?
- Larne vs Portadown is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Inver Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.