Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)Cashman Field, Las Vegas, Nevada
The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Las Vegas Lights. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
New Mexico United starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,820 vs 1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Las Vegas Lights have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; New Mexico United have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brooklyn(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miami FC(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monterey Bay(away) | 5-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 4-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Las Vegas Lights win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 New Mexico United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | New Mexico United 3-1 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| Aug 17, 2025 | New Mexico United 2-2 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Las Vegas Lights 2-3 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Nov 10, 2024 | New Mexico United 0-1 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2024 | New Mexico United 1-2 Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| May 5, 2024 | Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Las Vegas Lights score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; New Mexico United score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| New Mexico United | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Las Vegas Lights sit 10th in USL Championship (15 points from 12 matches) and New Mexico United sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 34 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 9 | New Mexico United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
- The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Las Vegas Lights.
- Where and when is Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United played?
- Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at Cashman Field, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots