Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab AI model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Aigle Noir. The most likely score is 1-1. If Le Messager Ngozi wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,865 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir?
On Elo ratings, Le Messager Ngozi has 1,501 points and Aigle Noir 1,631.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Le Messager Ngozi
4-3-3- 7A. Hakizimana
- 9A. Nibikora
- 16S. Saidi
- 15A. Eza
- 10I. Nizigiyimana
- 24A. Muderi
- 17C. Urasenga
- 3R. Mvuyekure
- 14O. Dushime
- 20J. Kashindi
- 26A. Hakizimana
Aigle Noir
Not enough data to predict the Aigle Noir lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 12:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Aigle Noir have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 0-2 | Ligue A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 1-3 | Ligue A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Muzinga(away) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bumamuru(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Rukinzo(away) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kayanza United(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Le Messager Ngozi wins, 2 draws, 2 Aigle Noir wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi 2-2 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Aigle Noir 4-1 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Aigle Noir 3-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Dec 11, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 2-1 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Aigle Noir 1-2 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aigle Noir score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Aigle Noir | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 7th in Ligue A (16 points from 8 matches) and Aigle Noir sit 10th (12 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Le Messager Ngozi | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 10 | Aigle Noir | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
A question about Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir?
- The Footlab AI model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Aigle Noir.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.