Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Aigle Noir the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Le Messager Ngozi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir?
Aigle Noir starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aigle Noir have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Olympic Star(home) | 3-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Garage Express(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Royal Vision(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dynamik(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Le Messager Ngozi win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Aigle Noir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi 2-2 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Aigle Noir 4-1 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Aigle Noir 3-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Dec 11, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 2-1 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Aigle Noir 1-2 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aigle Noir score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Aigle Noir | 1.6 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st in Ligue A (6 points from 2 matches) and Aigle Noir sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Aigle Noir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir?
- The Footlab model makes Aigle Noir the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Le Messager Ngozi.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Aigle Noir is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.