Royal Vision vs Le Messager Ngozi: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Stade Urunani, Buganda
The Footlab model makes Royal Vision the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Le Messager Ngozi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Royal Vision vs Le Messager Ngozi?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Royal Vision (1,542) and Le Messager Ngozi (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Royal Vision have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Le Messager Ngozi have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Olympic Star(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Musongati(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Vital'O(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aigle Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Royal Vision win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Le Messager Ngozi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-1 Royal Vision | Ligue A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Royal Vision 3-1 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Royal Vision 2-3 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-1 Royal Vision | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Le Messager Ngozi vs Royal Vision on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Royal Vision score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Vision | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Royal Vision sit 5th in Ligue A (4 points from 2 matches) and Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Royal Vision | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Royal Vision vs Le Messager Ngozi?
- The Footlab model makes Royal Vision the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Le Messager Ngozi.
- Where and when is Royal Vision vs Le Messager Ngozi played?
- Royal Vision vs Le Messager Ngozi is played on December 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Stade Urunani, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.