Le Messager Ngozi vs Olympic Star: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Olympic Star. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Olympic Star?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Le Messager Ngozi (1,528) and Olympic Star (1,513).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Olympic Star have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aigle Noir(away) | 1-3 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Ngozi City(home) | 4-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Inter Star(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vital'O(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Le Messager Ngozi win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Olympic Star win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Olympic Star 1-3 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Olympic Star | Ligue A |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Olympic Star | Ligue A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Olympic Star 2-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Olympic Star 1-1 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-0 Olympic Star | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Olympic Star vs Le Messager Ngozi on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Olympic Star score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Olympic Star | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st in Ligue A (6 points from 2 matches) and Olympic Star sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Olympic Star | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Olympic Star?
- The Footlab model makes Le Messager Ngozi the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Olympic Star.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Olympic Star played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Olympic Star is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.