Rukinzo vs Ngozi City: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:45 PM (UTC)Stade Intwari, Bujumbura
The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Ngozi City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rukinzo vs Ngozi City?
Rukinzo starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (1,618 vs 1,435).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rukinzo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Ngozi City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 4-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ngozi City(home) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 2-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympic Star(away) | 0-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Musongati(home) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rukinzo(away) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Rukinzo win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ngozi City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rukinzo 4-2 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Ngozi City 0-3 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Rukinzo 3-2 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Ngozi City 1-1 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| May 30, 2020 | Ngozi City 1-4 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Oct 26, 2019 | Rukinzo 1-0 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Rukinzo vs Ngozi City on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rukinzo score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ngozi City score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rukinzo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Ngozi City | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rukinzo sit 1st in Ligue A (4 points from 2 matches) and Ngozi City sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rukinzo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ngozi City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rukinzo vs Ngozi City?
- The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Ngozi City.
- Where and when is Rukinzo vs Ngozi City played?
- Rukinzo vs Ngozi City is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Intwari, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.