Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Amiki Wronki, Wronki
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Lech Poznań II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Lech Poznań II (1,779) and Polonia Środa (1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznań II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Polonia Środa have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gedania Gdansk(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Victoria Września(away) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Lech Poznań II win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Polonia Środa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Lech Poznań II 1-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Polonia Środa 1-4 Lech Poznań II | III Liga - Group 2 |
| May 2, 2025 | Lech Poznań II 1-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Polonia Środa 1-3 Lech Poznań II | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Lech Poznań II 1-0 Polonia Środa | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznań II score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań II | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznań II sit 6th in III Liga - Group 2 (10 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Środa sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Lech Poznań II.
- Where and when is Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa played?
- Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Amiki Wronki, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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