Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 2,041).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Gornik Zabrze have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lech Poznan win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Gornik Zabrze win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Lech Poznan 3-1 Gornik Zabrze | Super Cup |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Lech Poznan 0-1 Gornik Zabrze | Cup |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze on Jul 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Gornik Zabrze.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze played?
- Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze is played on March 13, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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