Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (2,138 vs 2,037).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gornik Zabrze have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gornik Zabrze win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Lech Poznan 3-1 Gornik Zabrze | Super Cup |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Lech Poznan 0-1 Gornik Zabrze | Cup |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze on Jul 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd in Ekstraklasa (9 points from 3 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Gornik Zabrze.
- Where and when is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan played?
- Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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