Leeds vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leeds wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Leeds (2,229) and Aston Villa (2,284).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leeds vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 24J. Justin
- 5T. Muharemović
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 7J. McGinn
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Aston Villa have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Leeds wins, 2 draws, 4 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2023 | Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Leeds 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jul 17, 2022 | Aston Villa 1-0 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 10, 2022 | Leeds 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.9 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 7th in Premier League (10 points from 7 matches) and Aston Villa sit 12th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Leeds vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Aston Villa played?
- Leeds vs Aston Villa is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.