Manchester City vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Newcastle?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (2,372 vs 2,151).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Manchester City win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Newcastle 1-3 Manchester City | FA Cup |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle | League Cup |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Newcastle 0-2 Manchester City | League Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Newcastle 2-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Manchester City 4-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Manchester City on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 7th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Newcastle played?
- Manchester City vs Newcastle is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.